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How many copies did Down is Relative sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 248–403
$68–$181 after Steam's cut $123–$279 before Steam's cut
from 10 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Down is Relative and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Down is Relative's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 381k–523k
best case 5.3M (Little Nightmares)
Games like Down is Relative

A typical game among these

≈ 381k–523k copies

≈ $1.1M–$3.4M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Little Nightmares at ≈ 4.0M–6.5M copies, ≈ $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 910 to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (7 of 8) and Horror (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Horror + Singleplayer + Dark; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
14x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
Zup!
2016
Est. copies
≈ 371k–603k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$203k–$546k after Steam's cut $370k–$841k before Steam's cut
$1.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleCasual
The Swapper
2013
Est. copies
≈ 480k–780k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleSci-fi
INMOST
2020
Est. copies
≈ 183k–297k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$753k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
IndiePixel Graphics
Little Nightmares II
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
7.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.0M–$32.3M after Steam's cut $21.8M–$49.7M before Steam's cut
$29.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAdventure
Catherine Classic
2019
Est. copies
≈ 326k–530k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentAnime
Superliminal
2020
Est. copies
≈ 848k–1.4M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.5M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleFirst-Person
Firework
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
44k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorIndie

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