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How many copies did Refuted Wind sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–6k
$2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut
from 156 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Refuted Wind and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Refuted Wind's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 124k–500k
best case 481k (KinitoPET)
Games like Refuted Wind

A typical game among these

≈ 124k–500k copies

≈ $708k–$3.9M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: KinitoPET at ≈ 367k–596k copies, ≈ $604k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 465 reviews in their first month; the range was 229 to 997.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (8 of 8) and Psychological Horror (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Horror, priced around $6.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Call of Cthulhu®
2018
Est. copies
≈ 424k–690k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
14k reviews
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LovecraftianHorror
KinitoPET
2024
Est. copies
≈ 367k–596k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$604k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before Steam's cut
$5.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
Amnesia: A Machine for Pigs
2013
Est. copies
≈ 770k–1.3M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
12k reviews
Mixed
Martha Is Dead
2022
Est. copies
≈ 98k–159k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$809k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
Kholat
2015
Est. copies
≈ 338k–548k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.0M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Mixed
HorrorAtmospheric
The Shore
2021
Est. copies
≈ 50k–81k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$163k–$439k after Steam's cut $297k–$676k before Steam's cut
$11.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
LovecraftianHorror
When the Darkness comes
2019
Est. copies
≈ 243k–394k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
8k reviews
Very Positive
Psychological HorrorFree to Play
[Chilla's Art] The Convenience Store | 夜勤事件
2020
Est. copies
≈ 82k–134k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$68k–$182k after Steam's cut $123k–$280k before Steam's cut
$2.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorIndie

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