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How many copies did Beholder: Conductor sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 135k–220k
$520k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $946k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Beholder: Conductor and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Beholder: Conductor's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 856k–1.8M
best case 3.6M (BioShock™ Remastered)
Games like Beholder: Conductor

A typical game among these

≈ 856k–1.8M copies

≈ $6.6M–$16.1M after Steam's cut

from ~29k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: BioShock™ Remastered at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $14.9M–$40.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 332 to 10k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Choices Matter (6 of 8) and Story Rich (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Story Rich, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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SteamSpy 1M–2M
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HackingSimulation
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2.3x vs typical
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