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How many copies did Ultimate Monkey Race sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 893–1k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
from 36 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ultimate Monkey Race and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ultimate Monkey Race's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.0M–3.1M
best case 2.9M (Ultimate Chicken Horse)
Games like Ultimate Monkey Race

A typical game among these

≈ 2.0M–3.1M copies

≈ $12.7M–$21.1M after Steam's cut

from ~39k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is 3D Platformer (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Ultimate Chicken Horse at ≈ 2.2M–3.6M copies, ≈ $9.2M–$24.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 51 reviews in their first month; the range was 14 to 79.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 3D Platformer (4 of 8) and Parkour (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Party + Platformer, priced around $15.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Mirror's Edge™
2009
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.8M after Steam's cut $24.9M–$56.6M before Steam's cut
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39k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureParkour
Ultimate Chicken Horse
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
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54k reviews
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too small to compare
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WHAT THE PAK?!
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Est. copies
≈ 32k–52k
too small to compare
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≈ 5k–8k
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