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How many copies did Mini Metro sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 819k–1.3M
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before Steam's cut
from 17k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mini Metro and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mini Metro's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 627k–942k
best case 2.2M (SUPERHOT)
Games like Mini Metro

A typical game among these

≈ 627k–942k copies

≈ $1.1M–$5.3M after Steam's cut

from ~21k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: SUPERHOT at ≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies, ≈ $11.7M–$31.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 744 to 15k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Puzzle (6 of 8) and City Builder (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Bullet Time, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dorfromantik
2022
Est. copies
≈ 735k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$13.99
30k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleRelaxing
Mini Motorways
2021
Est. copies
≈ 607k–986k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
24k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategySimulation
shapez
2020
Est. copies
≈ 396k–644k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
SUPERHOT
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.7M–$31.4M after Steam's cut $21.2M–$48.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS
Baba Is You
2019
Est. copies
≈ 712k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleIndie
LYNE
2014
Est. copies
≈ 462k–750k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$380k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $690k–$1.6M before Steam's cut
$2.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleLogic
Zup! S
2018
Est. copies
≈ 493k–801k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$270k–$725k after Steam's cut $491k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$1.99
16k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleCasual
ISLANDERS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 483k–786k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$663k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut
$4.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
RelaxingCity Builder

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.