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How many copies did Cat Bait sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 38k–63k
$53k–$142k after Steam's cut $96k–$218k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cat Bait and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cat Bait's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 529–2k
best case 11k (Maze Mice)
Games like Cat Bait

A typical game among these

≈ 529–2k copies

≈ $418–$3k after Steam's cut

from ~32 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

None of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Maze Mice at ≈ 8k–14k copies, ≈ $23k–$62k after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 24 reviews in their first month; the range was 6 to 221.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Bullet Hell (8 of 8) and Action Roguelike (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Bullet Time, priced around $10.
When they shipped
6 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Bullet HellScore Attack

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.