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How many copies did Casino Island Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–6k
$9k–$23k after Steam's cut $15k–$35k before Steam's cut
from 139 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Casino Island Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Casino Island Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 48.3M–89.0M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Casino Island Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 48.3M–89.0M copies

≈ $240.6M–$555.1M after Steam's cut

from ~1.0M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Building (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Building (3 of 8) and Open World (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + Third-Person Shooter + Action; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 80.0M–130.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.5M–70.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Euro Truck Simulator 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 59.7M–97.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
944k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.