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How many copies did Lizard Slayer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 372–605
$101–$272 after Steam's cut $184–$419 before Steam's cut
from 15 reviews (Mostly Negative)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lizard Slayer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lizard Slayer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–7.1M
best case 13.5M (Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition)
Games like Lizard Slayer

A typical game among these

≈ 1.0M–7.1M copies

≈ $22.2M–$109.8M after Steam's cut

from ~51k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition at ≈ 10.3M–16.7M copies, ≈ $169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 9k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 14k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Souls-like (8 of 8) and Third Person (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Souls-like + Ninja, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$71.3M–$191.8M after Steam's cut $129.7M–$295.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
133k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
LIZARDS MUST DIE
2023
Est. copies
≈ 656k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$719k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut
$3.99
26k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HistoricalSouls-like
The First Berserker: Khazan
2025
Est. copies
≈ 812k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.4M–$36.0M after Steam's cut $24.4M–$55.4M before Steam's cut
$59.99
33k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Nioh: Complete Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$49.99
39k reviews
Mostly Positive
Souls-likeAction
CODE VEIN
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.0M after Steam's cut $54.1M–$123.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeAnime
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.6M–$149.5M after Steam's cut $101.1M–$230.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
176k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.3M–16.7M
7.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$169.4M–$455.5M after Steam's cut $308.0M–$700.8M before Steam's cut
$59.99
357k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
Sifu
2023
Est. copies
≈ 717k–1.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
ActionMartial Arts

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