How much revenue did Sifu make?

$7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Sifu sell?

Q: How many copies did Sifu sell?

717k to 1.2M copies, based on its 29k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 717k–1.2M; $7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut; from 29k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sifu and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sifu's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.3M–6.7M

best case 9.9M (NARAKA: BLADEPOINT)

Games like Sifu

A typical game among these

≈ 2.3M–6.7M copies

≈ $27.1M–$45.7M after Steam's cut

from ~80k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Martial Arts (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: NARAKA: BLADEPOINT at ≈ 7.5M–12.2M copies.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 33k reviews in their first month; the range was 13k to 58k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Martial Arts (4 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Martial Arts.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.2M 2.6x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	204k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Street Fighter™ 6 2023	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	80k reviews Very Positive	2D FighterFighting
暖雪 Warm Snow 2022	Est. copies ≈ 971k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.8M–$12.9M after Steam's cut $8.7M–$19.9M before Steam's cut	$17.99	39k reviews Very Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M 2.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut $50.8M–$115.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	205k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.5M–12.2M 3.8x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	303k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.9M–$66.8M after Steam's cut $45.2M–$102.8M before Steam's cut	$49.99	73k reviews Very Positive	AnimeAction
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.6M–$66.2M after Steam's cut $44.7M–$101.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	80k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	49k reviews Very Positive	RPGStory Rich