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How many copies did Aaero2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$8k–$21k after Steam's cut $14k–$33k before Steam's cut
from 77 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Aaero2 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Aaero2's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 194–219k
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Aaero2

A typical game among these

≈ 194–219k copies

≈ $746–$316k after Steam's cut

from ~60 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 3 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 27.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Rhythm (6 of 8) and Bullet Hell (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
46805x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Beat Hazard
2010
Est. copies
≈ 471k–765k
125x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic-Based Procedural Generation
Vectorium
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
$4.99
74 reviews
Mostly Positive
Beat Hazard 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 65k–106k
38x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$340k–$914k after Steam's cut $618k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$18.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmMusic-Based Procedural Generation
Geometric Feel the Beats
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$611–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$1.99
45 reviews
Mostly Positive
RhythmCasual
TORINTO
2019
Est. copies
≈ 144–234
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$197–$531 after Steam's cut $359–$817 before Steam's cut
$4.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews
Local Co-OpAction
Asteroids and more asteroids
2022
Est. copies
≈ 99–161
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$54–$146 after Steam's cut $99–$224 before Steam's cut
$1.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
Bullet HellCasual
Bass Invaders
2024
Est. copies
≈ 149–242
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$614–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$14.99
6 reviews
6 user reviews
RhythmMusic

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