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How many copies did ColdRidge sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$8k–$22k after Steam's cut $15k–$34k before Steam's cut
from 121 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid ColdRidge and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including ColdRidge's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 397k–3.0M
best case 4.8M (Inscryption)
Games like ColdRidge

A typical game among these

≈ 397k–3.0M copies

≈ $1.8M–$6.3M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Horror (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Inscryption at ≈ 3.7M–6.0M copies, ≈ $20.3M–$54.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 54 to 20k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (4 of 8) and Puzzle (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Card Battler + Card Game, priced around $20.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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