How much revenue did The Guild 3 make?

$1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Guild 3 sell?

Q: How many copies did The Guild 3 sell?

199k to 324k copies, based on its 8k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 199k–324k; $1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.8M before Steam's cut; from 8k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Guild 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Guild 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 32k–127k

best case 4.6M (Crusader Kings III)

Games like The Guild 3

A typical game among these

≈ 32k–127k copies

≈ $164k–$714k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Crusader Kings III at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 80 to 22k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Simulation (7 of 8) and Medieval (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Medieval + Grand Strategy, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Character Customization + Grand Strategy + Historical; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: 4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Crusader Kings III 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M 123x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut	$49.99	143k reviews Very Positive	StrategyMedieval
Old Market Simulator 2024	Est. copies ≈ 134k–218k 4.6x vs typical SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $368k–$990k after Steam's cut $670k–$1.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	5k reviews Very Positive	SimulationOnline Co-Op
The Guild II Renaissance 2010	Est. copies ≈ 268k–436k 3.6x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $737k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	4k reviews Very Positive	SimulationStrategy
The Guild II 2010	Est. copies ≈ 53k–87k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $147k–$394k after Steam's cut $267k–$607k before Steam's cut	$9.99	845 reviews Mostly Positive	SimulationStrategy
Mirthwood 2024	Est. copies ≈ 59k–96k 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $406k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $738k–$1.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	RPGSandbox
Monarch : Medieval Remastered 2025	Est. copies ≈ 9k–15k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $31k–$84k after Steam's cut $57k–$130k before Steam's cut	$11.99	383 reviews Very Positive	Early AccessStrategy
SAELIG 2017	Est. copies ≈ 40k–65k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $165k–$443k after Steam's cut $300k–$682k before Steam's cut	$14.99	1k reviews Very Positive	SimulationRPG
Alchemist Shop Simulator 2025	Est. copies ≈ 4k–7k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $13k–$36k after Steam's cut $24k–$55k before Steam's cut	$11.99	163 reviews Very Positive	CasualSimulation