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How many copies did HSS:Reload sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–9k
$13k–$35k after Steam's cut $24k–$54k before Steam's cut
from 212 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid HSS:Reload and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including HSS:Reload's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.6M–6.6M
best case 29.7M (Don't Starve Together)
Games like HSS:Reload

A typical game among these

≈ 5.6M–6.6M copies

≈ $54.7M–$69.6M after Steam's cut

from ~163k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

Best case: Don't Starve Together at ≈ 22.6M–36.8M copies, ≈ $93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 73k reviews in their first month; the range was 42k to 129k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (5 of 8) and Rogue-like (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Action Roguelike, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Indie; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Warhammer: Vermintide 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$37.0M–$99.6M after Steam's cut $67.3M–$153.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
148k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opDark Fantasy
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22.6M–36.8M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
544k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
Hades
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7.7M–12.5M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$52.9M–$142.2M after Steam's cut $96.1M–$218.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
310k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
184k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike

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