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How big is The Final Exam?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 13k–21k
from 532 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Final Exam and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Final Exam's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 14.2M–46.2M
best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like The Final Exam

A typical game among these

≈ 14.2M–46.2M copies

≈ $187.5M–$216.2M after Steam's cut

from ~298k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Shooter (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (4 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Competitive + Action + Team-Based; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Free
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1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
291k reviews
Very Positive
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord
2022
Est. copies
≈ 7.4M–12.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$101.7M–$273.3M after Steam's cut $184.8M–$420.5M before Steam's cut
$49.99
298k reviews
Very Positive
MedievalStrategy
Arma 3
2013
Est. copies
≈ 18.7M–30.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$154.1M–$414.3M after Steam's cut $280.2M–$637.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
296k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryAction
Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 624.8M–1015.3M
33x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.9M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.7M–80.7M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
786k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.0M–9.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$66.5M–$178.7M after Steam's cut $120.8M–$274.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
244k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryRealistic

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