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How many copies did Nova-111 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 9k–15k
$12k–$33k after Steam's cut $22k–$51k before Steam's cut
from 183 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nova-111 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nova-111's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 799k–1.6M
best case 12.4M (Deep Rock Galactic)
Games like Nova-111

A typical game among these

≈ 799k–1.6M copies

≈ $5.4M–$7.9M after Steam's cut

from ~29k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Deep Rock Galactic at ≈ 9.4M–15.3M copies, ≈ $77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 40k reviews in their first month; the range was 3k to 103k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (6 of 8) and Rogue-like (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Rogue-like + Action Roguelike, priced around $25.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dome Keeper
2022
Est. copies
≈ 558k–906k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before Steam's cut
$17.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerPost-apocalyptic
Roboquest
2023
Est. copies
≈ 608k–989k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.2M after Steam's cut $7.6M–$17.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction Roguelike
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor
2025
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.6M after Steam's cut $7.8M–$17.8M before Steam's cut
$12.99
49k reviews
Very Positive
DwarfAction Roguelike
Brotato
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut
$4.99
119k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Risk of Rain (2013)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut $9.4M–$21.4M before Steam's cut
$9.99
30k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
380k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
Risk of Rain 2
2020
Est. copies
≈ 8.8M–14.2M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
353k reviews
Very Positive
Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
Risk of Rain Returns
2023
Est. copies
≈ 712k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.9M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeOnline Co-Op

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