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How many copies did Open Fire sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25–40
$20–$55 after Steam's cut $37–$84 before Steam's cut
from 1 review (1 user reviews)
Only 1 review so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Open Fire and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Open Fire's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.3M–30.4M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Open Fire

A typical game among these

≈ 11.3M–30.4M copies

≈ $45.4M–$123.9M after Steam's cut

from ~417k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (3 of 8) and Open World (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

VRChat
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Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
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PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
6.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Slime Rancher
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
158k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CuteExploration
BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.5M–33.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
421k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
Brawlhalla
2017
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
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Free
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413k reviews
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Free to PlayMultiplayer
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
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Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
267k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.