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How many copies did DragonRoad sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$17k–$45k after Steam's cut $30k–$69k before Steam's cut
from 122 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DragonRoad and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DragonRoad's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 667–1k
best case 339k (Windblown)
Games like DragonRoad

A typical game among these

≈ 667–1k copies

≈ $2k–$4k after Steam's cut

from ~29 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Windblown at ≈ 258k–419k copies, ≈ $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 4k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Souls-like (5 of 8) and Action Roguelike (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Hack and Slash, priced around $22. The breakout hits carry Indie + Rogue-like + Isometric; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.