How much revenue did The Guise make?

$2k–$6k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Guise sell?

Q: How many copies did The Guise sell?

2k copies, based on its 62 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2k; $2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut; from 62 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Guise and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Guise's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 362k–709k

best case 2.6M (Blasphemous)

Games like The Guise

A typical game among these

≈ 362k–709k copies

≈ $2.0M–$8.4M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Blasphemous at ≈ 2.0M–3.2M copies, ≈ $18.8M–$50.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 5k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Souls-like (5 of 8) and Dark Fantasy (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Exploration, priced around $35.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Rain World 2017	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M 5.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $13.6M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	58k reviews Very Positive	DifficultAtmospheric
The Last Faith 2023	Est. copies ≈ 141k–229k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut	$27.99	6k reviews Very Positive	Metroidvania Souls-like
CONTROL Ultimate Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M 5.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $17.7M–$47.7M after Steam's cut $32.2M–$73.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	65k reviews Very Positive	ActionSupernatural
Blasphemous 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M 5.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.8M–$50.7M after Steam's cut $34.3M–$78.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	68k reviews Very Positive	MetroidvaniaPixel Graphics
Lunacid 2023	Est. copies ≈ 287k–467k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut	$13.99	12k reviews Very Positive	Dungeon CrawlerDark Fantasy
Salt and Sanctuary 2016	Est. copies ≈ 915k–1.5M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.2M–$18.7M before Steam's cut	$17.99	22k reviews Very Positive	Souls-like Metroidvania
Blasphemous 2 2023	Est. copies ≈ 540k–878k 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $6.7M–$18.0M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut	$44.99	22k reviews Very Positive	CombatFantasy
Returnal™ 2023	Est. copies ≈ 276k–448k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.6M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut	$59.99	11k reviews Very Positive	ActionBullet Hell