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How many copies did Disney's Chicken Little sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 38k–62k
from 781 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Disney's Chicken Little and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Disney's Chicken Little's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.1M–3.6M
best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Disney's Chicken Little

A typical game among these

≈ 2.1M–3.6M copies

≈ $9.9M–$49.1M after Steam's cut

from ~48k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (5 of 8) and Anime (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Utilities + Software + Design & Illustration; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 309k–501k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
6k reviews
Mostly Negative
MultiplayerFPS
NEKOPARA Vol. 1
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiAnime
Metro: Last Light Redux
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.5M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.3M–$67.9M after Steam's cut $45.9M–$104.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
82k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.1M–$72.7M after Steam's cut $49.2M–$111.9M before Steam's cut
$59.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
FlightJet
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 3 (2011)
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.5M after Steam's cut $50.4M–$114.6M before Steam's cut
$39.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
21x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Senren*Banka
2020
Est. copies
≈ 923k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$23.9M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
37k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Mirror 2: Project X
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.5M before Steam's cut
$1.99
116k reviews
Mostly Negative
3DMatch 3

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