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How many copies did Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 253k–410k
$1.0M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.3M before Steam's cut
from 6k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 700k–1.1M
best case 1.1M (Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III)
Games like Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic)

A typical game among these

≈ 700k–1.1M copies

≈ $5.7M–$16.7M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III at ≈ 823k–1.3M copies, ≈ $9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share RTS (8 of 8) and Sci-fi (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Warhammer 40K + RTS, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2007 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II: Retribution
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 326k–529k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
13k reviews
Very Positive
Warhammer 40KStrategy
Homeworld Remastered Collection
2015
Est. copies
≈ 693k–1.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$34.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceStrategy
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 318k–517k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Mostly Positive
SpaceStrategy
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III
2017
Est. copies
≈ 823k–1.3M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.3M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
24k reviews
Mixed
Warhammer 40KStrategy
Warhammer® 40,000: Dawn of War® - Soulstorm
2008
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
19k reviews
Very Positive
Warhammer 40KStrategy
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Anniversary Edition (Classic)
2007
Est. copies
≈ 756k–1.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Warhammer® 40,000: Dawn of War® - Dark Crusade
2007
Est. copies
≈ 603k–980k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
10k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StrategyWarhammer 40K
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 884k–1.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.7M after Steam's cut $22.1M–$50.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Warhammer 40KStrategy

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