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How big is Astro Lords?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 11k–18k
from 231 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Astro Lords and predicted how it would do from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Astro Lords's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.6M–7.9M
best case 10.7M (Stellaris)
Games like Astro Lords

A typical game among these

≈ 3.6M–7.9M copies

≈ $31.6M–$123.4M after Steam's cut

from ~135k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Stellaris at ≈ 8.2M–13.3M copies, ≈ $112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sandbox (3 of 3) and Simulation (3 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space + Grand Strategy, priced around $50.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Space Engineers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.3M–$57.3M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
135k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSandbox
Universe Sandbox
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.0M–$35.0M after Steam's cut $23.6M–$53.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSpace
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.6M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.6M before Steam's cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.