How much revenue did Overfall make?

$50k–$135k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Overfall sell?

Q: How many copies did Overfall sell?

37k to 60k copies, based on its 881 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 37k–60k; $50k–$135k after Steam's cut $91k–$208k before Steam's cut; from 881 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Overfall and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Overfall's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 258k–336k

best case 27.3M (The Forest)

Games like Overfall

A typical game among these

≈ 258k–336k copies

≈ $977k–$2.7M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.8M–33.7M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 809 reviews in their first month; the range was 269 to 9k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Survival (5 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Horror + Crafting; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Pretend 2021	Est. copies ≈ 32k–52k too small to compare SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue Free	Free	1k reviews Mixed	Early AccessCasual
Eternal Edge + 2022	Est. copies ≈ 19k–31k too small to compare SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $80k–$214k after Steam's cut $145k–$329k before Steam's cut	$14.99	778 reviews Mixed	Action RPGExploration
Home Behind 2016	Est. copies ≈ 256k–416k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $422k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $767k–$1.7M before Steam's cut	$5.99	6k reviews Very Positive	AdventureRPG
The Matchless Kungfu 2024	Est. copies ≈ 197k–320k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	8k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldMartial Arts
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M 86x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Book of Yog Idle RPG 2022	Est. copies ≈ 224k–363k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	9k reviews Mixed	AdventureMassively Multiplayer
Caves of Qud 2024	Est. copies ≈ 316k–514k 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.6M–$7.0M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	13k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Procedural GenerationTurn-Based Combat
Curious Expedition 2 2021	Est. copies ≈ 103k–167k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $566k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	4k reviews Very Positive	AdventureSimulation