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How many copies did Gabe Newell Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 34k–55k
$28k–$75k after Steam's cut $51k–$116k before Steam's cut
from 696 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Gabe Newell Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Gabe Newell Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 12.3M–21.4M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Gabe Newell Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 12.3M–21.4M copies

≈ $95.8M–$383.1M after Steam's cut

from ~269k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (4 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + PvP + Third-Person Shooter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.5M–28.5M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$289.3M–$777.8M after Steam's cut $526.0M–$1196.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
422k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
10x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.5M–15.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$52.0M–$139.7M after Steam's cut $94.5M–$214.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 11.4M–18.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$188.7M–$507.3M after Steam's cut $343.1M–$780.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
234k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerZombies
Hearts of Iron IV
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.1M–24.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$207.7M–$558.4M after Steam's cut $377.6M–$859.1M before Steam's cut
$49.99
363k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyWorld War II

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