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How many copies did Stikbold! A Dodgeball Adventure sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 20k–33k
$55k–$148k after Steam's cut $100k–$228k before Steam's cut
from 483 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Stikbold! A Dodgeball Adventure and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Stikbold! A Dodgeball Adventure's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.4M–7.0M
best case 37.2M (Rocket League®)
Games like Stikbold! A Dodgeball Adventure

A typical game among these

≈ 3.4M–7.0M copies

≈ $24.4M–$62.9M after Steam's cut

from ~120k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Rocket League® at ≈ 28.3M–46.0M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 18k reviews in their first month; the range was 10k to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (4 of 8) and Sports (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Football (Soccer) + Competitive. The breakout hits carry Football (American) + Competitive + Team-Based; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rocket League®
2015
Est. copies
≈ 28.3M–46.0M
4.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
580k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerFootball (Soccer)
EA SPORTS™ FIFA 23
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
150k reviews
Mixed
Football (Soccer)Sports
FIFA 22
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
120k reviews
Very Positive
Football (Soccer)Sports
Rec Room
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
84k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayVR
theHunter: Call of the Wild™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.0M–11.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
203k reviews
Very Positive
HuntingOpen World
Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.8M–15.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
CarX Drift Racing Online
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.4M–$38.6M after Steam's cut $26.1M–$59.4M before Steam's cut
$16.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingPhysics
Beat Saber
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRRhythm

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