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How many copies did The Culling sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 592k–962k
from 17k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Culling and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Culling's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 768k–14.8M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like The Culling

A typical game among these

≈ 768k–14.8M copies

from ~69k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Battle Royale (8 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Last Man Standing
2017
Est. copies
≈ 596k–968k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Free
Free
17k reviews
Mixed
Free to PlaySurvival
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
40x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Ring of Elysium
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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Free
Free
99k reviews
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Free to PlayBattle Royale
Z1 Battle Royale
2018
Est. copies
≈ 6.2M–10.0M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
202k reviews
Mixed
SurvivalMassively Multiplayer
Creative Destruction
2018
Est. copies
≈ 552k–897k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
18k reviews
Mostly Positive
MultiplayerBattle Royale
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
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Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
CRSED: Cuisine Royale
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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Free
Free
39k reviews
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Battle RoyaleFree to Play
Battlerite Royale
2019
Est. copies
≈ 235k–381k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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8k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleFree to Play

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.