How much revenue did PataNoir make?

$2k–$5k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did PataNoir sell?

Q: How many copies did PataNoir sell?

666 to 1k copies, based on its 16 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 666–1k; $2k–$5k after Steam's cut $3k–$8k before Steam's cut; from 16 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid PataNoir and predicted how it would do from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including PataNoir's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–2.9M

best case 3.8M (Mirror 2: Project X)

Games like PataNoir

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–2.9M copies

≈ $1.4M–$7.8M after Steam's cut

from ~37k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 7 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Story Rich (3 of 7), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Mirror 2: Project X at ≈ 2.9M–4.7M copies, ≈ $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 163 to 23k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Story Rich (3 of 7) and Visual Novel (3 of 7).
The winners: Winners here lead with Match 3 + Anime, priced around $2.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
LoveChoice 2021	Est. copies ≈ 910k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $498k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $906k–$2.1M before Steam's cut	$1.99	37k reviews Very Positive	RomanceDating Sim
To the Moon 2012	Est. copies ≈ 5.5M–8.9M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $15.0M–$40.4M after Steam's cut $27.3M–$62.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	87k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichGreat Soundtrack
Milk inside a bag of milk inside a bag of milk 2020	Est. copies ≈ 853k–1.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $349k–$939k after Steam's cut $635k–$1.4M before Steam's cut	$1.49	34k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual Novel Psychological Horror
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension 2020	Est. copies ≈ 648k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut	$12.99	26k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	IndieAdventure
Sally Face - Episode One 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.2M before Steam's cut	$2.99	30k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story Rich Psychological Horror
Mirror 2: Project X 2022	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.7M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.9M–$6.5M before Steam's cut	$1.99	116k reviews Mostly Negative	3DMatch 3
The Henry Stickmin Collection 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.4M after Steam's cut $11.1M–$25.3M before Steam's cut	$14.99	60k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FunnyMultiple Endings