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How many copies did The American Dream sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–6k
$16k–$44k after Steam's cut $30k–$67k before Steam's cut
from 130 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The American Dream and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The American Dream's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 45k–328k
best case 4.6M (Fallout 76)
Games like The American Dream

A typical game among these

≈ 45k–328k copies

≈ $157k–$2.7M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

5 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is First-Person (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Fallout 76 at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $38.4M–$103.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 106 to 14k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (3 of 8) and Shooter (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Night At the Gates of Hell
2022
Est. copies
≈ 22k–36k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$73k–$197k after Steam's cut $133k–$303k before Steam's cut
$11.99
895 reviews
Very Positive
Survival HorrorZombies
Prison Simulator Prologue
2021
Est. copies
≈ 72k–116k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Very Positive
ActionSingleplayer
POSTAL 4: No Regerts
2022
Est. copies
≈ 335k–544k
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$5.0M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
14k reviews
Mixed
AdventureGore
Freedom Finger
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5k–7k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$10k–$27k after Steam's cut $18k–$42k before Steam's cut
$7.99
159 reviews
Very Positive
RhythmFunny
Fallout 76
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
55x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.3M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
141k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldMultiplayer
BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT
2025
Est. copies
≈ 222k–360k
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$304k–$818k after Steam's cut $553k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$4.99
9k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Boomer ShooterFPS
Disney's Chicken Little
2015
Est. copies
≈ 38k–62k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
781 reviews
Mixed
AdventureAnime
Grandpa High on Retro
2025
Est. copies
≈ 55k–89k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$121k–$324k after Steam's cut $219k–$499k before Steam's cut
$7.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
ActionAdventure

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