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How many copies did BUTCHER sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 59k–96k
$162k–$436k after Steam's cut $295k–$671k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid BUTCHER and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including BUTCHER's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.8M–10.5M
best case 25.5M (Call of Duty®)
Games like BUTCHER

A typical game among these

≈ 5.8M–10.5M copies

≈ $66.8M–$94.1M after Steam's cut

from ~184k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Call of Duty® at ≈ 19.4M–31.5M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 47k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 165k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (7 of 8) and Shooter (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Co-op + Horror; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DOOM Eternal
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$44.5M–$119.7M after Steam's cut $80.9M–$184.1M before Steam's cut
$29.99
218k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Battlefield™ 1
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$62.3M–$167.4M after Steam's cut $113.2M–$257.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
228k reviews
Very Positive
FPSMultiplayer
Call of Duty®
2022
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.5M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
782k reviews
Mixed
FPSMultiplayer
Ready or Not
2023
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–14.0M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$118.4M–$318.4M after Steam's cut $215.3M–$489.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
347k reviews
Mostly Positive
TacticalRealistic
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
Hell Let Loose
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$51.1M–$137.3M after Steam's cut $92.9M–$211.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
150k reviews
Very Positive
ShooterRealistic
POSTAL 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.7M–14.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$24.0M–$64.5M after Steam's cut $43.6M–$99.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
138k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ViolentDark Humor
Insurgency: Sandstorm
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.4M–$89.9M after Steam's cut $60.8M–$138.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
133k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRealistic

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.