How much revenue did Winter Novel make?

$35k–$93k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Winter Novel sell?

Q: How many copies did Winter Novel sell?

25k to 41k copies, based on its 609 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 25k–41k; $35k–$93k after Steam's cut $63k–$144k before the cut; from 609 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Winter Novel out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Winter Novel's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–1.9M

best case 5.7M (Everlasting Summer)

Games like Winter Novel

The middle of these games

≈ 1.2M–1.9M copies

≈ $7.0M–$16.2M after Steam's cut

from ~28k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Everlasting Summer at ≈ 4.4M–7.1M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Anime (8 of 8) and Visual Novel (8 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Story Rich. The breakout hits carry Free to Play + Choices Matter + Romance; a typical game here doesn't.
The era: The games you compared span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Tricolour Lovestory 2017	Est. copies ≈ 966k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $528k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $961k–$2.2M before the cut	$1.99	28k reviews Very Positive	Visual NovelDating Sim
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.2M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$31.0M before the cut	$19.99	33k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AnimeDetective
STEINS;GATE 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.8M–$38.3M before the cut	$29.99	27k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual Novel Story Rich
Everlasting Summer 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.1M 2.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	78k reviews Very Positive	Visual Novel Story Rich
Senren＊Banka 2020	Est. copies ≈ 920k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $8.9M–$23.8M after Steam's cut $16.1M–$36.6M before the cut	$34.99	37k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelNSFW
ATRI -My Dear Moments- 2020	Est. copies ≈ 581k–945k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.0M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before the cut	$20.99	23k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Visual NovelAnime
NEKOPARA Vol. 1 2014	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before the cut	$9.99	27k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	HentaiAnime
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc 2016	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.8M–$23.5M after Steam's cut $15.9M–$36.2M before the cut	$19.99	38k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AnimeVisual Novel