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How many copies did Cockroach Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 130k–210k
$106k–$286k after Steam's cut $194k–$440k before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Cockroach Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cockroach Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 56.0M–78.3M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Cockroach Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 56.0M–78.3M copies

≈ $330.9M–$605.0M after Steam's cut

from ~1.0M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Survival (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Shooter + Battle Royale + FPS; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2006 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.5M–70.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Project Zomboid
2013
Est. copies
≈ 30.5M–49.6M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$209.9M–$564.4M after Steam's cut $381.6M–$868.2M before Steam's cut
$24.99
483k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Euro Truck Simulator 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 59.7M–97.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
944k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DrivingTransportation
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 80.0M–130.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22.6M–36.8M
too small to compare
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
544k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities

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