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How many copies did SOULCALIBUR VI sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 437k–710k
$10.8M–$29.1M after Steam's cut $19.7M–$44.7M before Steam's cut
from 14k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid SOULCALIBUR VI and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SOULCALIBUR VI's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.3M–4.3M
best case 9.9M (NARAKA: BLADEPOINT)
Games like SOULCALIBUR VI

A typical game among these

≈ 2.3M–4.3M copies

≈ $26.8M–$58.1M after Steam's cut

from ~80k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: NARAKA: BLADEPOINT at ≈ 7.5M–12.2M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 23k reviews in their first month; the range was 9k to 49k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fighting (6 of 8) and Character Customization (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Martial Arts. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + Martial Arts + Female Protagonist; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
TEKKEN 7
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.2M–$97.2M after Steam's cut $65.7M–$149.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
FightingAction
Mortal Kombat 11
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before Steam's cut
$49.99
116k reviews
Very Positive
FightingGore
DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.0M–$21.4M after Steam's cut $14.5M–$32.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
58k reviews
Very Positive
ActionRPG
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.7M–$36.7M after Steam's cut $24.8M–$56.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeFighting
Street Fighter™ 6
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
80k reviews
Very Positive
2D FighterFighting
MORDHAU
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.3M–5.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.9M–$72.3M after Steam's cut $48.9M–$111.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
113k reviews
Mostly Positive
MedievalMultiplayer
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.5M–$41.5M after Steam's cut $28.1M–$63.9M before Steam's cut
$39.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeMultiplayer

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