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How many copies did Thimbleweed Park™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 146k–237k
$801k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Thimbleweed Park™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thimbleweed Park™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.6M–6.7M
best case 129.3M (Terraria)
Games like Thimbleweed Park™

A typical game among these

≈ 5.6M–6.7M copies

≈ $39.0M–$51.5M after Steam's cut

from ~173k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Automobile Sim (2 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 98.5M–160.1M copies, ≈ $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 43k reviews in their first month; the range was 20k to 58k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Automobile Sim (2 of 8) and Crafting (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox + Survival; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut		 $19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
PewDiePie: Legend of the Brofist
2015
Est. copies
≈ 82k–134k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$181k–$486k after Steam's cut $329k–$747k before Steam's cut		 $7.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
MemesPixel Graphics
Inscryption
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.3M–$54.6M after Steam's cut $36.9M–$84.0M before Steam's cut		 $19.99
149k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Card BattlerCard Game
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.9M–$75.1M after Steam's cut $50.8M–$115.6M before Steam's cut		 $19.99
205k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.4M–$103.2M after Steam's cut $69.8M–$158.8M before Steam's cut		 $24.99
184k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
Starbound
2016
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.1M–$56.9M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.5M before Steam's cut		 $14.99
123k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Terraria
2011
Est. copies
≈ 98.5M–160.1M
9.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut		 $9.99
1.6M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free		 Free
204k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction

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