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How many copies did MageQuit sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 41k–67k
$170k–$457k after Steam's cut $309k–$703k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid MageQuit and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including MageQuit's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 34k–622k
best case 3.8M (Dragon's Dogma 2)
Games like MageQuit

A typical game among these

≈ 34k–622k copies

≈ $126k–$7.2M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Dragon's Dogma 2 at ≈ 2.9M–4.7M copies, ≈ $32.1M–$86.3M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 518 reviews in their first month; the range was 347 to 82k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (4 of 8) and Sandbox (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Action RPG, priced around $40.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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