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How many copies did First Strike sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 70k–114k
$231k–$621k after Steam's cut $420k–$955k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid First Strike and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including First Strike's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 517k–1.1M
best case 895k (Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic)
Games like First Strike

A typical game among these

≈ 517k–1.1M copies

≈ $4.0M–$12.4M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic at ≈ 682k–1.1M copies, ≈ $7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 9k reviews in their first month; the range was 6k to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share RTS (5 of 8) and Cold War (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + City Builder, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2024, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic
2024
Est. copies
≈ 682k–1.1M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$31.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Command & Conquer™ Red Alert™ 3
2009
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
16k reviews
Very Positive
Family FriendlyLevel Editor
Tropico 4
2011
Est. copies
≈ 807k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.3M–$8.9M after Steam's cut $6.0M–$13.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
WARNO
2024
Est. copies
≈ 401k–651k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.4M–$11.8M after Steam's cut $8.0M–$18.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
16k reviews
Mostly Positive
WargameMilitary
Cold Waters
2017
Est. copies
≈ 163k–265k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationNaval Combat
Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising
2009
Est. copies
≈ 372k–605k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
Very Positive
Family FriendlyLevel Editor
Wargame: Red Dragon
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.5M after Steam's cut $16.6M–$37.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Age of History 3
2024
Est. copies
≈ 468k–761k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
WargameStrategy

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