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How many copies did Snowballer sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 570–927
$312–$839 after Steam's cut $567–$1k before Steam's cut
from 23 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Snowballer and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Snowballer's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 92k–154k
best case 2.7M (Fistful of Frags)
Games like Snowballer

A typical game among these

≈ 92k–154k copies

≈ $704k–$1.3M after Steam's cut

from ~2k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Fistful of Frags at ≈ 2.1M–3.4M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 453 reviews in their first month; the range was 63 to 2k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (5 of 8) and Arena Shooter (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Arena Shooter + FPS. The breakout hits carry PvP + PvE + Western; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.9x vs typical
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VRGore
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VRAction
Fistful of Frags
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≈ 2.1M–3.4M
16x vs typical
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PvPArena Shooter
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TanksSimulation

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.