How much revenue did The Vagrant make?

$290k–$779k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Vagrant sell?

Q: How many copies did The Vagrant sell?

264k to 429k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 264k–429k; $290k–$779k after Steam's cut $527k–$1.2M before Steam's cut; from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Vagrant and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Vagrant's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.3M–4.9M

best case 5.9M (Celeste)

Games like The Vagrant

A typical game among these

≈ 3.3M–4.9M copies

≈ $9.1M–$40.7M after Steam's cut

from ~83k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Female Protagonist (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Celeste at ≈ 4.5M–7.4M copies, ≈ $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Female Protagonist (3 of 8) and Anime (2 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Precision Platformer + Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Celeste 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.4M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.9M–$67.0M after Steam's cut $45.3M–$103.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	149k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Precision PlatformerDifficult
Soundpad 2017	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut	$4.99	105k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	UtilitiesAudio Production
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.9M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.9M–$21.2M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.6M before Steam's cut	$24.99	46k reviews Very Positive	MetroidvaniaFemale Protagonist
Clicker Heroes 2015	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	62k reviews Very Positive	ClickerIdler
Muse Dash 2019	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before Steam's cut	$2.99	122k reviews Very Positive	MusicRhythm
Ori and the Blind Forest 2015	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	60k reviews Very Positive	Great SoundtrackAtmospheric
HoloCure - Save the Fans! 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	41k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsBullet Hell
Little Nightmares 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	117k reviews Very Positive	HorrorAtmospheric