How much revenue did Megaquarium make?

$793k–$2.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Megaquarium sell?

Q: How many copies did Megaquarium sell?

115k to 187k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 115k–187k; $793k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut; from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Megaquarium and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Megaquarium's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.7M–18.7M

best case 105.1M (Garry's Mod)

Games like Megaquarium

A typical game among these

≈ 7.7M–18.7M copies

≈ $89.6M–$282.3M after Steam's cut

from ~291k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Garry's Mod at ≈ 80.0M–130.1M copies, ≈ $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Sandbox (6 of 8) and Building (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Sandbox + Moddable, priced around $12. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer + Casual + Funny; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
House Flipper 2018	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M too small to compare SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut $42.6M–$96.9M before Steam's cut	$24.99	112k reviews Very Positive	SimulationDesign & Illustration
Garry's Mod 2006	Est. copies ≈ 80.0M–130.1M 4.3x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.3M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxModdable
People Playground 2019	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	321k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxGore
The Sims™ 4 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.0M–8.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	201k reviews Very Positive	Life SimCharacter Customization
Stardew Valley 2016	Est. copies ≈ 43.5M–70.7M 3.6x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Farming SimPixel Graphics
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.8M–25.7M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut $473.7M–$1077.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	380k reviews Very Positive	StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Factorio 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.9M–9.5M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $56.4M–$151.5M after Steam's cut $102.5M–$233.1M before Steam's cut	$35.00	236k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AutomationBase-Building
Cities: Skylines 2015	Est. copies ≈ 14.2M–23.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $117.2M–$315.2M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	291k reviews Very Positive	City Builder Simulation