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How many copies did STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight II - Jedi Outcast™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 314k–510k
$863k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight II - Jedi Outcast™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight II - Jedi Outcast™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.6M–14.4M
best case 23.2M (Half-Life 2)
Games like STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight II - Jedi Outcast™

A typical game among these

≈ 6.6M–14.4M copies

≈ $52.2M–$90.6M after Steam's cut

from ~182k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Half-Life 2 at ≈ 17.7M–28.8M copies, ≈ $48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sci-fi (6 of 8) and First-Person (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Sci-fi, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 1998 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Halo: The Master Chief Collection
2019
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$83.3M–$223.9M after Steam's cut $151.4M–$344.5M before Steam's cut
$39.99
263k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackFPS
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.7M–$136.4M after Steam's cut $92.3M–$209.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
Black Mesa
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$19.8M–$53.2M after Steam's cut $35.9M–$81.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
145k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRemake
Half-Life
1998
Est. copies
≈ 10.4M–16.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
164k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
Resident Evil 4 (2005)
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–9.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.4M–$81.7M after Steam's cut $55.2M–$125.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
99k reviews
Very Positive
Inventory ManagementSurvival Horror
Half-Life 2
2004
Est. copies
≈ 17.7M–28.8M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$48.6M–$130.7M after Steam's cut $88.4M–$201.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.3M after Steam's cut $50.3M–$114.4M before Steam's cut
$59.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
Portal
2007
Est. copies
≈ 12.6M–20.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.6M–$93.1M after Steam's cut $63.0M–$143.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
199k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePuzzle-Platformer

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