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How many copies did Garden Tale sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 550–894
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
from 16 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Garden Tale and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Garden Tale's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 264–2k
best case 150k (Punch Club 2: Fast Forward)
Games like Garden Tale

A typical game among these

≈ 264–2k copies

≈ $647–$20k after Steam's cut

from ~19 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Punch Club 2: Fast Forward at ≈ 114k–186k copies, ≈ $628k–$1.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 2k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Time Management (7 of 8) and Tactical RPG (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Time Management + Resource Management, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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242x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.