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How many copies did Army of Tentacles: (Not) A Cthulhu Dating Sim: Black GOAT of the Woods Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 61–99
$184–$495 after Steam's cut $335–$762 before Steam's cut
from 2 reviews (2 user reviews)
Only 2 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Army of Tentacles: (Not) A Cthulhu Dating Sim: Black GOAT of the Woods Edition and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Army of Tentacles: (Not) A Cthulhu Dating Sim: Black GOAT of the Woods Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 96k–119k
best case 881k (Darkest Dungeon® II)
Games like Army of Tentacles: (Not) A Cthulhu Dating Sim: Black GOAT of the Woods Edition

A typical game among these

≈ 96k–119k copies

≈ $690k–$937k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Exploration (2 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Darkest Dungeon® II at ≈ 671k–1.1M copies, ≈ $7.4M–$19.9M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 102 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (2 of 8) and Horror (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Tactics + Dungeon Crawler, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based Tactics + Dungeon Crawler + Rogue-lite; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 22k–35k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 100k–200k
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Est. copies
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Darkest Dungeon® II
2023
Est. copies
≈ 671k–1.1M
8.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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27k reviews
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Sword and Fairy Inn 2
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SKALD: Against the Black Priory
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Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer

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