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How many copies did Darkest Dungeon® II sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 671k–1.1M
$7.4M–$19.9M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.5M before Steam's cut
from 27k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Darkest Dungeon® II and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Darkest Dungeon® II's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 82k–108k
best case 220k (Black Book)
Games like Darkest Dungeon® II

A typical game among these

≈ 82k–108k copies

≈ $464k–$818k after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Black Book at ≈ 168k–272k copies, ≈ $1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the range was 150 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Tactics (6 of 8) and Card Battler (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Card Battler + Turn-Based Tactics, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Female Protagonist + Card Game + Turn-Based; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.1x vs typical
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