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How many copies did Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander (LIGHTSPEED EDITION) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 29k–47k
$119k–$321k after Steam's cut $217k–$493k before Steam's cut
from 841 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander (LIGHTSPEED EDITION) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander (LIGHTSPEED EDITION)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–81k
best case 20.7M (Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI)
Games like Halcyon 6: Starbase Commander (LIGHTSPEED EDITION)

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–81k copies

≈ $9k–$1.1M after Steam's cut

from ~274 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI at ≈ 15.8M–25.7M copies, ≈ $260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 183 reviews in their first month; the range was 8 to 779.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share 4X (6 of 8) and Turn-Based (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Strategy + Historical, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Into the Void
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$4k–$10k after Steam's cut $7k–$15k before Steam's cut
$1.99
136 reviews
Mixed
StrategyAdventure
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.8M–25.7M
1388x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$260.5M–$700.4M after Steam's cut $473.7M–$1077.6M before Steam's cut
$59.99
380k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Fort Triumph
2020
Est. copies
≈ 25k–40k
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$137k–$368k after Steam's cut $249k–$566k before Steam's cut
$19.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
3DTactical RPG
Sorcerer King: Rivals
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17k–28k
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$94k–$253k after Steam's cut $171k–$389k before Steam's cut
$19.99
411 reviews
Mixed
4XTactical RPG
Hero Generations: ReGen
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4k–6k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$16k–$42k after Steam's cut $29k–$65k before Steam's cut
$14.99
92 reviews
Mixed
Old World
2022
Est. copies
≈ 171k–279k
25x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before Steam's cut
$39.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySimulation
Void Eclipse
2021
Est. copies
≈ 422–685
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
$29.99
17 reviews
Mixed
Paths & Danger
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$6k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$23k before Steam's cut
$9.99
83 reviews
Mixed
Turn-Based CombatDark Fantasy

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