How much revenue did Paths & Danger make?

$6k–$15k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Paths & Danger sell?

Q: How many copies did Paths & Danger sell?

2k to 3k copies, based on its 83 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2k–3k; $6k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$23k before Steam's cut; from 83 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Paths & Danger and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paths & Danger's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 105k–139k

best case 525k (Gloomhaven)

Games like Paths & Danger

A typical game among these

≈ 105k–139k copies

≈ $1.2M–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Gloomhaven at ≈ 400k–650k copies, ≈ $3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 970 to 8k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Tactical RPG (6 of 8) and Turn-Based Tactics (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Turn-Based Combat, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Hard West 2 2022	Est. copies ≈ 80k–130k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $661k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before Steam's cut	$29.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Turn-Based StrategyWestern
Urtuk: The Desolation 2021	Est. copies ≈ 63k–103k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $244k–$657k after Steam's cut $444k–$1.0M before Steam's cut	$13.99	3k reviews Very Positive	Turn-Based TacticsHex Grid
King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022	Est. copies ≈ 188k–305k 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut	$44.99	8k reviews Very Positive	Tactical RPGTurn-Based Tactics
Disciples: Liberation 2021	Est. copies ≈ 99k–161k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	4k reviews Mostly Positive	RPGStrategy
The Last Spell 2023	Est. copies ≈ 341k–555k 4.0x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	14k reviews Very Positive	StrategySingleplayer
The Age of Decadence 2015	Est. copies ≈ 198k–322k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $818k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before Steam's cut	$14.99	4k reviews Very Positive	Turn-Based CombatChoices Matter
Gloomhaven 2021	Est. copies ≈ 400k–650k 4.6x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.4M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before Steam's cut	$34.99	16k reviews Very Positive	Online Co-OpDark Fantasy
Ash of Gods: Redemption 2018	Est. copies ≈ 106k–172k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $726k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	3k reviews Mostly Positive	RPGSingleplayer