How much revenue did Heat make?

$399k–$1.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Heat sell?

Q: How many copies did Heat sell?

73k to 118k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 73k–118k; $399k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $726k–$1.7M before Steam's cut; from 3k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Heat and predicted how it would do from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including Heat's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 87k–202k

best case 21.7M (Fallout: New Vegas)

Games like Heat

A typical game among these

≈ 87k–202k copies

≈ $728k–$1.8M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 7 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout: New Vegas at ≈ 16.6M–26.9M copies, ≈ $45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 976 to 3k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (7 of 7) and Western (5 of 7).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Post-apocalyptic + Singleplayer + Moddable; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of the 7 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Outlaws of the Old West 2019	Est. copies ≈ 181k–295k 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $997k–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.1M before Steam's cut	$19.99	6k reviews Mixed	Open World Survival CraftWestern
Blood West 2023	Est. copies ≈ 167k–272k 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	7k reviews Very Positive	FPSOpen World
Wild West Legacy 2024	Est. copies ≈ 53k–86k SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $395k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $718k–$1.6M before Steam's cut	$26.99	2k reviews Mostly Negative	WesternSimulation
Fallout: New Vegas 2010	Est. copies ≈ 16.6M–26.9M 63x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $45.5M–$122.3M after Steam's cut $82.7M–$188.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	262k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG
This Land Is My Land 2021	Est. copies ≈ 116k–188k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $953k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	5k reviews Mixed	SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Above Snakes 2023	Est. copies ≈ 50k–81k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $342k–$918k after Steam's cut $621k–$1.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	Open WorldAtmospheric
New Frontier 2019	Est. copies ≈ 106k–173k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	4k reviews Mixed	Free to PlaySurvival