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How many copies did The Bureau: XCOM Declassified sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 764k–1.2M
$4.2M–$11.3M after Steam's cut $7.6M–$17.4M before Steam's cut
from 12k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Bureau: XCOM Declassified and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Bureau: XCOM Declassified's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.3M–6.1M
best case 34.9M (Apex Legends™)
Games like The Bureau: XCOM Declassified

A typical game among these

≈ 4.3M–6.1M copies

≈ $28.2M–$50.4M after Steam's cut

from ~100k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Apex Legends™ at ≈ 26.6M–43.2M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share FPS (5 of 8) and Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + FPS. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + PvP + First-Person; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PlanetSide 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 4.7M–7.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
75k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayFPS
Splitgate
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
110k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayFPS
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.6M–43.2M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
XCOM® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.6M–$103.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
110k reviews
Very Positive
IsometricTurn-Based Combat
XCOM: Enemy Unknown
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.3M before Steam's cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyTactical
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.1M–$78.2M after Steam's cut $52.9M–$120.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
108k reviews
Very Positive
StealthOpen World
STAR WARS™ Battlefront II (Classic, 2005)
2009
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.4M–$25.4M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$39.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Very Positive
ActionMultiplayer
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.3M–$73.4M after Steam's cut $49.7M–$113.0M before Steam's cut
$39.99
100k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerShooter

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