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How many copies did Harmonium sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 182–296
$250–$672 after Steam's cut $454–$1k before Steam's cut
from 6 reviews (6 user reviews)
Only 6 reviews so far, so that range swings on one or two people. Read it as a hint, not a measurement.

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Harmonium and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Harmonium's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 930k–1.6M
best case 2.0M (The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty)
Games like Harmonium

A typical game among these

≈ 930k–1.6M copies

≈ $2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty at ≈ 1.5M–2.4M copies, ≈ $4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 332 to 28k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (8 of 8) and Visual Novel (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Historical, priced around $10.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty
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≈ 1.5M–2.4M
1.8x vs typical
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The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series
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≈ 1.2M–1.9M
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Choices MatterStory Rich
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