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How many copies did Frozen Flame sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 74k–121k
$409k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $743k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Frozen Flame and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Frozen Flame's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.4M–10.6M
best case 18.3M (Valheim)
Games like Frozen Flame

A typical game among these

≈ 3.4M–10.6M copies

≈ $40.1M–$149.6M after Steam's cut

from ~124k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Valheim at ≈ 13.9M–22.6M copies, ≈ $114.9M–$308.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 45k reviews in their first month; the range was 16k to 558k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Base-Building (8 of 8) and Open World (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $30.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

ASTRONEER
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$33.1M–$89.1M after Steam's cut $60.2M–$137.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
139k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerOpen World
ICARUS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$16.4M–$44.2M after Steam's cut $29.9M–$68.0M before Steam's cut
$34.99
69k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Valheim
2026
Est. copies
≈ 13.9M–22.6M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.9M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
562k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.6M–18.8M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.5M–$256.7M after Steam's cut $173.6M–$395.0M before Steam's cut
$29.99
381k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Green Hell
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.4M–$54.8M after Steam's cut $37.0M–$84.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
103k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Satisfactory
2024
Est. copies
≈ 6.9M–11.3M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$76.3M–$205.2M after Steam's cut $138.8M–$315.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
280k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Base-BuildingAutomation
Subnautica: Below Zero
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.7M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
109k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Grounded
2022
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$26.2M–$70.4M after Steam's cut $47.6M–$108.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
96k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer

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