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How many copies did Vacation Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 31k–50k
$170k–$457k after Steam's cut $309k–$703k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Vacation Simulator and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Vacation Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.3M–4.2M
best case 12.2M (VRChat)
Games like Vacation Simulator

A typical game among these

≈ 3.3M–4.2M copies

≈ $44.8M–$60.7M after Steam's cut

from ~79k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: VRChat at ≈ 9.3M–15.1M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Simulation (3 of 5) and VR (3 of 5).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Anime. The breakout hits carry Anime + Memes + Free to Play; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rec Room
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.1M–3.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
84k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayVR
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.3M–15.1M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
88k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerPhysics
Tabletop Simulator
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.0M–$53.8M after Steam's cut $36.4M–$82.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
75k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
TabletopBoard Game
Planet Coaster
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$37.2M–$100.0M after Steam's cut $67.6M–$153.8M before Steam's cut
$44.99
72k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationBuilding

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