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How many copies did Midnight Ultra sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$3k–$7k after Steam's cut $5k–$11k before Steam's cut
from 83 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Midnight Ultra and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Midnight Ultra's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 383k–3.0M
best case 11.5M (POSTAL 2)
Games like Midnight Ultra

A typical game among these

≈ 383k–3.0M copies

≈ $2.5M–$37.1M after Steam's cut

from ~15k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: POSTAL 2 at ≈ 8.7M–14.2M copies, ≈ $24.0M–$64.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share First-Person (8 of 8) and Violent (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Violent + Dark Humor, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Call of Juarez: Bound in Blood
2009
Est. copies
≈ 324k–526k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$889k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
WesternAction
Battlefield™ Hardline
2020
Est. copies
≈ 135k–220k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.0M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
5k reviews
Mixed
ActionMultiplayer
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare
2012
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$28.2M–$75.9M after Steam's cut $51.3M–$116.8M before Steam's cut
$24.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
MedievalMultiplayer
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.8M–$50.5M after Steam's cut $34.2M–$77.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
50k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Trepang2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 489k–795k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.7M after Steam's cut $8.6M–$19.5M before Steam's cut
$34.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
ShooterSingleplayer
Sword With Sauce
2018
Est. copies
≈ 197k–319k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$270k–$725k after Steam's cut $490k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
ActionParkour
Bulletstorm: Full Clip Edition
2017
Est. copies
≈ 335k–544k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$9.9M after Steam's cut $6.7M–$15.2M before Steam's cut
$39.99
10k reviews
Very Positive
ActionGore
POSTAL 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.7M–14.2M
9.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$24.0M–$64.5M after Steam's cut $43.6M–$99.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
138k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ViolentDark Humor

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