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How many copies did Nippon Marathon sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 11k–18k
$45k–$120k after Steam's cut $81k–$185k before Steam's cut
from 357 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Nippon Marathon and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Nippon Marathon's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 53k–611k
best case 2.0M (SpeedRunners)
Games like Nippon Marathon

A typical game among these

≈ 53k–611k copies

≈ $233k–$9.9M after Steam's cut

from ~6k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: SpeedRunners at ≈ 1.5M–2.5M copies, ≈ $6.4M–$17.2M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 367 reviews in their first month; the range was 19 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Racing (8 of 8) and Arcade (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Competitive, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

SpeedRunners
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
6.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.2M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.4M before Steam's cut
$14.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerRacing
Horizon Chase Turbo
2018
Est. copies
≈ 181k–294k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
Very Positive
RacingArcade
Zeepkist
2021
Est. copies
≈ 43k–70k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$235k–$633k after Steam's cut $428k–$973k before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RacingArcade
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed Collection
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.7M after Steam's cut $11.3M–$25.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
RacingLocal Multiplayer
High Octane Drift
2016
Est. copies
≈ 244k–397k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
Mixed
RacingAutomobile Sim
DIRT 5
2020
Est. copies
≈ 174k–283k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.7M after Steam's cut $5.2M–$11.9M before Steam's cut
$59.99
7k reviews
Mixed
RacingDriving
Super Woden GP 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25k–41k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$90k–$242k after Steam's cut $163k–$372k before Steam's cut
$12.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
RacingSports
New Star™ GP
2024
Est. copies
≈ 32k–52k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$89k–$239k after Steam's cut $161k–$367k before Steam's cut
$9.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
RacingSports

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